Refund velocity flags

A sudden climb in refund rate is almost never random. It's a product issue, a delivery issue, or an ad-targeting issue.

The trigger

We flag when 7-day refund rate exceeds 1.5x the 28-day baseline for a specific SKU, country, or campaign. Alert lands by email and on your dashboard within 15 minutes of the threshold being crossed.

The three common root causes

• Product defect: a specific SKU is refunding at 3x normal. Often a manufacturing batch issue. Action: pause that SKU, check supplier.
• Shipping failure: refunds spiking in a specific country. Often a carrier issue or customs hold. Action: check your 3PL dashboard.
• Bad-fit traffic: a specific ad creative is driving buyers who refund within 7 days. Creative is converting but the audience isn't a fit. Action: pause creative, tighten targeting.

The dollar impact

Omesta estimates the monthly impact based on SKU velocity × refund-rate delta. Typical flagged refund-velocity leak: $800-$3,200/mo.